Post-publication of Ofsted’s Report, ASCL has referred in its press release to the KS2-4 Transition Matrices published on Raise Online.
I thought it might be useful to reproduce those here.
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2012 KS2-4 Transition Matrices for English (top) and Maths (Bottom)
These track back the KS2 performance of learners achieving GCSE Maths and English in 2012 and show that:
- 98% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in English achieved 3 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4, compared with 92% of those achieving 5B and 70% of those achieving 5C
- 87% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in English achieved 4 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4, compared with 64% of those achieving 5B and 29% of those achieving 5C
- The percentage of learners achieving 4A in English at KS2 who went on to achieve three levels of progress and four levels of progress – 85% and 41% respectively – were significantly higher than the comparable percentages for learners achieving 5C
- 47% of those achieving 5A in English at KS2 when on to achieve A* at GCSE, compared with 20% of those achieving 5B and 4% of those achieving 5C
- 87% of those achieving 5A in English at KS2 went on to achieve A* or A at GCSE, compared with 64% of those achieving 5B and 29% of those achieving 5C
- 96% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in Maths achieved 3 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4, compared with 86% of those achieving 5B and 67% of those achieving 5C
- 84% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in Maths achieved 4 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4, compared with 57% of those achieving 5B and 30% of those achieving 5C
- The percentage of learners achieving 4A in Maths at KS2 who went on to achieve three levels of progress and 4 levels of progress – 89% and 39% respectively – were significantly higher than the comparable percentages for learners achieving 5C. The percentage achieving three levels of progress even exceeded the percentage of those with 5B who managed this.
- 50% of those achieving 5A in Maths at KS2 went on to achieve A* at GCSE, compared with 20% of those achieving 5B and 6% of those achieving 5C
- 84% of those achieving 5A in Maths at KS2 went on to achieve A* or A at GCSE, compared with 57% of those achieving 5B and 30% of those achieving 5C
I have highlighted in bold the statistics that make most uncomfortable reading. It is especially concerning that half or fewer of those achieving 5A in either maths or English were able to translate that into an A* grade at the end of KS4. That rather undermines the suggestion that limited progression is entirely attributable to the lower end of the distribution of those achieving L5 at KS2.
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GP
Gifted Phoenix 
Could you confirm what the difference is between the two tables pleases? Academic years? Has anyone seen data showing variation between Year 6 NC levels and Year 7 baseline (perhaps from GL for CAT), and whether there is a fall in attainment seen. The reasons given for this woud of course be varied and hotly debated ….
I’ve added some labelling. I haven’t seen any data comparing Year 6 and 7 performance, though I guess secondary schools ought to be able to evidence their allegations that KS2 test outcomes are unreliable when set against the outcomes of their comparable Year 7 tests.
GP
Long week & too tired, but you appear to have highlighted level 4 kids being dragged over the grade C boundary.
The matrices were losing their right hand edge when viewed on smaller screens. I’ve reduce their size so you should now be able to see them in their entirety.
GP
“The percentage of learners achieving 4A in Maths at KS2 who went on to achieve three levels of progress and 4 levels of progress – 89% and 39% respectively – were significantly higher than the comparable percentages for learners achieving 5C. The percentage achieving three levels of progress even exceeded the percentage of those with 5B who managed this.”
My first thought is this demonstrates the Higher/Foundation divide since 4A students need a C to achieve three levels of progress. In terms of 4 levels of progress, I wonder if 39% is “significantly higher” than 30%. What are the numbers of L4A who take higher level exams?
Excellent blog, and fantastic information – please keep it up!