The 2013 Transition Matrices and High Attainers’ Performance

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Data Overload courtesy of opensourceway

Data Overload courtesy of opensourceway

Since last year’s post on the Secondary Transition Matrices attracted considerable interest, I thought I’d provide a short commentary on what the 2013 Matrices – primary and secondary – tell us about the national performance of high attainers.

This note is a postscript to my recent offerings on:

and completes the set of benchmarking resources that I planned to make available.

I am using the national matrices rather than the interactive matrices (which, at the time of writing, are not yet available for 2013 results). I have included a few figures from the 2012 national matrices for comparative purposes.

According to Raise Online, the national matrices are derived from the data for ‘maintained mainstream and maintained and non-maintained special schools’.

They utilise KS2 fine points scores as set out below.

Sub Level Points Fine points range
6 39 36-41.99
5A 34-35.99
5B 33 32-33.99
5C 30-31.99
4A 28-29.99
4B 27 26-27.99
4C 24-25.99
3A 22-23.99
3B 21 20-21.99
3C 18-19.99

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2013 Primary Transition Matrices

The Primary Matrices track back the KS1 performance of learners completing KS2 tests in 2013.

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Reading

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2013 primary reading TM.

This table shows that:

  • 12% of KS1 learners with L4 reading secured the minimum expected 2 levels of progress by securing L6 at the end of KS2. It is not possible for such learners to make more than 2 levels of progress. Almost all the remaining 88% of Level 4 learners made a single level of progress to Level 5.
  • By comparison, just 1% of learners achieving Level 3 in KS1 made 3 levels of progress to Level 6 (the same percentage as in 2012).
  • 87% of KS1 learners achieving L3 in reading secured the expected 2 or more levels of progress, 85% of them making 2 levels of progress to L5. However, some 13% made only 1 level of progress to L4. (In 2012, 89% of those with L3 at secured L5 and 10% reached L4.)
  • The proportion of learners with L3 in reading at KS1 who made the expected 2 levels of progress was lower than the proportions of learners with L2 overall, L2A, or L2B doing so. The proportion exceeding 2 levels of progress was far higher for every other level of KS1 achievement. (This was also true in 2012.)

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Writing

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2013 primary writing TM.

This table shows that:

  • 61% of learners achieving L4 in writing at KS1 made the requisite 2 levels of progress to L6 at KS2. Such learners are unable to make more than 2 levels of progress. The remaining 39% of L4 learners made a single level of progress to L5.
  • This compares with 9% of learners with L3 at KS1 who made 3 levels of progress to L6 (up from 6% in 2012). A further 2% of learners with L2A made 4 levels of progress to L6.
  • 89% of learners with L3 in KS1 writing made the expected 2 or more levels of progress, 80% of them making 2 levels of progress to L5. But 11% made only a single level of progress to L4. (In 2012, 79% of those with L3 at KS1 reached L5 and 15% made only L4.)
  • The proportion of learners with L3 at KS1 in writing achieving the expected 2 levels of progress was lower than the proportions of learners with L2 overall, L2A or L2B, or even L1 doing so. The proportion exceeding 2 levels of progress was far higher for every other level of KS1 achievement with the exception of L2C. (A similar pattern was evident in 2012.)

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Maths

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2013 primary maths TM.

This table shows that:

  • 89% of those achieving L4 in maths at KS1 made the requisite 2 levels of progress to L6 in KS2. These learners are unable to make more than 2 levels of progress. But the remaining 11% of those with L4 at KS1 made only a single level of progress to KS2 L5.
  • This compares with 26% of learners at L3 in KS1 maths who made 3 levels of progress to KS2 L6 (up significantly from 14% in 2012). In addition, 4% of those at KS1 L2A and 1% of those at 2B also managed 4 levels of progress to KS2 L6.
  • 90% of learners with L3 in KS1 maths made the expected 2 or more levels of progress to L5, 64% making 2 levels of progress to L5. But a further 10% made only a single level of progress to KS2 L4. (In 2012, 74% of those with L3 at KS1 made it to KS2 L5 and 11% secured L4.)
  • The proportion of learners with L3 at KS1 in maths who achieved the expected 2 levels of progress was lower than the proportions of those with KS1 L2A or L2B doing so. The proportion of learners exceeding 2 levels of progress was significantly higher for those with KS1 L2 overall, those with L2A, and even those with L1, but it was lower for those with L2B and especially L2C. (In 2012 the pattern was similar, but the gap between the proportions with L2B and L3 exceeding 2 levels of progress has narrowed significantly.)

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Key Challenges

The key challenges in respect of high attainers in the primary sector are to:

  • Enable a higher proportion of learners with L4 at KS1 to make the expected 2 levels of progress to KS2 L6. There is a particular problem in reading where 88% of these learners are making a single level of progress.
  • Enable a higher proportion of learners with L3 at KS1 to make 3 levels of progress to KS2 L6. Reading is again the least advanced, but there is huge scope for improvement across the board. Efforts should be made to close the gaps between L2A and L3 making three levels of progress, which currently stand at 55 percentage points (reading), 49 percentage points (writing) and 30 percentage points (maths). For the duration of their existence, increasing take-up of KS2 L6 tests should secure further improvement.
  • Increase the proportions of learners with L3 at KS1 making 2 levels of progress so they are comparable with what is achieved by those with L2A and L2B at KS1. There are currently gaps of 11 percentage points (reading), 10 percentage points (writing) and 9 percentage points (maths) between those with L3 and those with L2A. The gaps between those with L3 and those with L2B are 5 percentage points (reading), 8 percentage points (writing) and 1 percentage point (maths).
  • Ensure that far fewer learners with L3 at KS1 manage only a single level of progress across KS2. The current levels – 13% in reading, 11% in writing and 10% in maths – are unacceptable.

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Secondary

The Secondary Matrices track back the KS2 performance of learners completing GCSEs in 2013.

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English

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2013 secondary Englsih sublevels TM.

The table shows:

  • 97% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in English secured at least 3 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4 in 2013. This compares with 92% of learners achieving 5B and 74% of learners achieving 5C. (The comparable figures in 2012 were 98%, 92% and 70% respectively.)
  • 89% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in English achieved 4 or more levels of progress from KS2 to KS4 in 2013, so achieving an A* or A grade at GCSE, compared with 66% of those achieving 5B and 33% of those achieving 5C. (The comparable figures in 2012 were 87%, 64% and 29% respectively.)
  • The percentages of learners with 4A in English at KS2 who completed 3 and 4 or more levels of progress – 87% and 46% respectively – were significantly higher than the comparable percentages for learners achieving 5C.
  • 53% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in English made 5 levels of progress by achieving A* at GCSE, compared with 23% of those achieving 5B and 6% of those achieving 5C. (These are significantly higher than the comparable figures for 2012, which were 47%, 20% and 4% respectively).
  • 1% of KS2 learners achieving 5A at KS2 made only two levels of progress to GCSE grade C, compared with 6% of those with 5B and 22% of those with 5C. (These percentages have fallen significantly compared with 2012, when they were 3%, 13% and 30% respectively.)

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Maths

.2013 secondary maths sublevels TM.

This table shows:

  • 97% of those achieving 5A in maths secured at least 3 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4, whereas 88% of learners achieving 5B did so and 70% of learners at 5C. (The comparable 2012 figures were 96%, 86% and 67% respectively.)
  • 85% of KS2 learners achieving 5A in maths made 4 or more levels of progress in 2013 to GCSE A* or A grades, compared with 59% of those at 5B and 31% of those at 5C. (The comparable 2012 figures were 84%, 57% and 30%.)
  • The percentage of learners achieving 4A in maths at KS2 who completed 3 and 4 or more levels of progress – 91% and 43% respectively – were significantly higher than the percentages of those with 5C who did so.
  • 53% of KS2 learners with 5A in maths made 5 levels of progress to achieve an A* grade in maths, compared with 22% of those with 5B and 6% of those with 5C. (The comparable figures for 2012 were 50%, 20% and 6% respectively).
  • 3% of learners with 5A at KS2 made only two levels of progress to GCSE grade C, compared with 11% of those with 5B and 27% of those with 5C. (These percentages were 3%, 13% and 30% in 2012.)

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Key challenges

The key challenges in respect of high attainers in the secondary sector are to:

  • Ensure that, so far as possible, all learners with L5 at KS2 make at least 3 levels of progress to at least GCSE grade B. Currently more than 1 in 5 students with Level 5C fail to achieve this in English and more than 1 in 4 fail to do so in maths. Moreover, more than 1 in 10 of those with 5B at KS2 fall short of 3 levels of progress in maths. This is disappointing.
  • Ensure that a higher proportion of learners with L5 at KS2 make 4 and 5 levels of progress. The default expectation for those with L5A at KS2 should be an A* Grade at GCSE (5 levels of progress) while the default for those with L5B at KS2 should be at least Grade A at GCSE (4 levels of progress). Currently 47% of those with L5A are falling short of A* in both English and maths, while 34% of those with L5B are falling short of A*/A in English while 41% are doing so in maths.
  • Narrow the gaps between the performance of those with L5C at KS2 and those with L4A. Currently there are 13 percentage point gaps between the proportions making the expected 3 levels of progress and between the proportions exceeding 3 levels of progress in English, while in maths there are gaps of 21 percentage points between those making 3 levels of progress and of 12 percentage points between those exceeding 3 levels of progress.

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GP

January 2014

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